TEHRAN(Bazaar) – Tariq Raouf, former Director General of the Atomic Energy Agency says Biden needs Netanyahu’s support to win election in 2024, and Biden needs to keep Saudis and Emiratis on side.
“While Saudis are quiet at IAEA on Iran nuclear file, the Emiratis are openly critical of Iran on the nuclear file. Biden’s priority is to get Saudi normalization of relations with Israel,” Rauf told Bazaar news agency.
Following is the text of the Bazaar interview with Tariq Raouf.
Q: In his recent statement, Qatar’s foreign minister announced that the partial nuclear agreement (quid-pro-quo approach) is the best way to reach a comprehensive agreement between Iran and the United States. What is your assessment of this solution?
A: It seems there is an informal understanding between Iran and US that Iran will not exceed 60% enrichment and also not increase stock of 60% enriched uranium to a critical quantity and maintain IAEA safeguards. US will ease on Iran oil exports and no new sanctions on nuclear activities.
Q: One of the obstacles to the quid-pro-quo approach is determining the priorities of each step. Another problem is that the components of these steps are related to each other, and without having a general picture of what should be finally achieved, it is difficult to determine the priority of the steps. What is your assessment?
A: It seems that both sides want to avoid escalation but neither side thinks a comprehensive agreement is possible under present circumstances. The US has been quiet on Iran at the IAEA and is not pushing any anti-Iran resolutions.
Q: One of the successful cases of the quid-pro-quo approach is the exchange of prisoners and the cessation of Iran’s enrichment of 60%. Is this approach applicable to other fundamental differences between Iran and the United States?
A: Other matters are more complicated. Iran exports of drones to Russia, and activities in the region concern the US, but there is no interest by Iran to work on these matters with the US.
Q: America is satisfied with the current situation based on a temporary understanding, but Iran wants the lifting of sanctions, which will be achieved through a comprehensive agreement. However, no Iranian official has yet taken a position regarding Qatar’s ‘quid-pro-quo approach’. However, due to the time-consuming nature of such an approach, it seems that in the short term, Iran will not achieve its desired economic benefits. What is your assessment?
A: Biden needs Netanyahu’s support to win election in 2024, and Biden needs to keep Saudis and Emiratis on side. While Saudis are quiet at IAEA on Iran nuclear file, the Emiratis are openly critical of Iran on the nuclear file. Biden’s priority is to get Saudi normalization of relations with Israel.
Q: To what extent can the current temporary understanding between Iran and the US be sustainable?
A: This understanding can continue in the short- to medium-term, what happens after 20 Jan 2024 under new US administration is open to question.
